Sunday, April 18, 2010

RAISING CASH

I started to raise cash on Friday. Not that I think the absolute top is in on this latest move but I want to lock in profits. I have been 200% long since late February and Friday we racked up another Distribution Day. Now, one might say it was Options Expiration and a ton of volume came on GOOG earnings and GS fruad news. However, heavy selling even with logical reasons needs to be paid attention to regardless. We have 5 days of distribution on the S&P and NYSE and 3 for the leading index, the Nasdaq.

Therefore, I will be off margin at this point. I have been watching the 2470 to 2550 area on the Nasdaq for potential retracement level. Well, we got to 2517. A pullback would appear to be in order. Everybody and their brother is looking for the pullback which might just be the reason for the market to grind higher. There is still tons of cash on the sidelines by funds and the mom and pop retail investor appears to still be on the sidelines. Maybe we need to get everyone back in before the market really can rest.

None the less, I am taking some profits in stocks like CREE, CMG, GMCR, PCLN, and SNDK. These stocks are up big in 2010 after gigantic moves in 2009. I will still have some exposure but would rather be disappointed that I left a little on the table than wished I would have sold. I want to have cash on hand to buy these same names back on potential pullbacks to their 50 Day Moving Averages.

The other thing I noticed last week is that some of the breakouts are not working as well. Let's face it, this market has been way too easy. Every breakout has come worry free and with quick profits. I am having a hard time thinking of any breakouts that even came back to their pivot points. Ok, CTRP did. But, that is about it. VMW and ULTA broke out nice but really didn't give the follow through you'd like to see. I took just so-so profits and moved on. I also jumped on SWI and APKT only to see the breakouts reverse. This leads me to believe that while the end is not necessarily here, it is closer. I think once we get through earnings season the market will be due for a rest. This may be one of those years when it truly is "Sell in May & Go Away".

I certainly have no idea what the market will do and it's crazy to try and predict. I am simply observing what I see happening and try to make the best decisions for my P&L. So far the charts of leading growth stocks are holding up well. But, it is time to be on high alert.

Keep your stops in place and trade what you see and not what you think........

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